A NEW STRATEGY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONSEQUENCE ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE IN CHEMICAL PROCESSES

摘要

A strategy is proposed for producing robust accident scenarios in quantitative risk analysis, which is performed in the process design or operation steps. This study analyzes process elements and then proposes a strategy for selecting and generating an accident scenario that is most likely to happen and should be foremost considered. The proposed scenario-reasoning scheme consists of three types of knowledge base (equipment property knowledge base, material property knowledge base, and process unit knowledge base) and four reasoning algorithms (macro decomposition algorithm, equipment screening algorithm, equipment behavior analysis algorithm, and accident reasoning algorithm). The result of the analysis enhances the reliability of the generated risk scenario and prevents the risks from being overestimated, so the result should be more helpful in the proper process design and emergency planning