Deriving Major Accident Failure Frequencies with a Storybuilder Analysis of Reportable Accidents

摘要

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) is used in the Netherlands and the UK for site permittingrnand land-use planning around industries with dangerous substances. For example,rnindividual risk contours resulting from a QRA determine where houses and other types ofrnconstructions may exist. Therefore, both industry and regulators ask for models and datarnthat are up to date. Data used for input includes the failure frequency of failure scenarios.rnIn the past, updating frequencies required costly one-time investigations. As major hazardrnaccidents are investigated by the Labor Inspectorate by decree, a possibility arises to usernthese accident investigation data for a continuing updating scheme. Recent major accidentsrnin the UK and in the Netherlands were analyzed with the Storybuilder method. Underlyingrnfailure causes at operational and management levels were investigated andrnstored in a structured database. The amount of equipment present at plants was exploredrnusing various paths. Failure scenarios and frequencies can be updated on a regular basisrnby combining the accident data with the equipment data.