Scenarios on Technological Innovation and Knowledge Production by Multinational Enterprises

摘要

The objective of this paper is to analyse trends and possible future changes in the way of knowledge production by multinational enterprises (MNE) and the relative role of MNE for knowledge production in the European Research Area. Various scenarios of the future of technological innovation and knowledge production by MNE will be developed. The time horizon of the scenario will be to 2020. R&D is considered as one core element hereby. Four consistent scenarios are built. In scenario "The Long Boom", the investment in technological knowledge is dramatic and highly globally distributed. In scenario "Ups and Downs", the overall investment in innovation stagnates and correlates with the economic up-and-down-swings. The "'Hand picked Innovation" scenario includes, that MNE generate innovation only by chance and focus on internal knowledge generation. In the "Zero Grow" scenario, MNE restrain competition and technological knowledge becomes less and less important to differentiate in competition. This work was initiated by the Science and Technology Foresight Unit of DG RTD of the European Commission which has launched an expert group on "The Future of Key Research Actors in the European Research Area".