Modelling demand for air travel and tourism to Australia using the dynamic panel datatechnique

摘要

The aim of this paper is to use the dynamic panel data modelling technique to model thernnumber of arrivals to Australia. The objective is to use this technique to calculate the long runrnand short run demand elasticities with respect to income, prices and airfares. Annual datarnfrom 1992 to 2006 for the ten main sources of arrivals to Australia (China, Germany, HongrnKong, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, UK and USA) are used.rnResults confirm that demand is of a dynamic nature, and the adjustment process to a newrnequilibrium after initial shocks in the determinants occurs at a rate of 51 percent. In the shortrnrun, demand is inelastic with respect to all the determinants used in this study whereas in thernlong run it becomes elastic with respect to price and income only. Consumers become highlyrnresponsive to changes in the cost of living in Australia. The main implications of the resultsrnobtained are that maintaining destination price competitiveness and consumer satisfactionrnshould be rated very high in the priorities of the Australian tourism industry.