ASYMMETRIC POPULATION AGEING, OPEN ECONOMY, AND FISCAL POLICY

摘要

This paper examines the growth and welfare effects of population ageing in an open economy framework by considering ageing scenarios for developing countries. The results show that international capital mobility and endogenous fiscal policy may together reverse the effects of population ageing on economic growth and welfare as predicted by closed economy and exogenous fiscal policy models. The ageing scenarios show that even when the demographic shocks in developed and developing countries are the same in magnitude, their reactions depend on the timing of the shock. Overall, the early-ageing scenario yields more beneficial growth and welfare transitions for both country groups.