Climate warming impact and adaptation activities of rice plantation in the Northeast China

摘要

It is calculated that the average and standard deviation of the accumulate temperature from May to September for the period 1960-1999 of the Northeast China. The result shows that heat resource in almost all of the Northeast China increased. According to the quantitative relation between heat resource and rice yield per-unit-area of different rice varieties of earliest ripe, early ripe, medium ripe, medium-late ripe and late ripe, the model is established to calculate the expected rice yield per-unitarea using the method of expectation evaluation of risk-benefit decision-making. It is found climate warming induced positive effects on rice production in Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces, and induced negative effects in most areas of Liaoning Province.