房地产周期

摘要： 房地产市场作为重要的资产市场易受意外事件的冲击影响。1997年以来,中国经历了四次重要的外部事件冲击,而此期间中国的房地产市场却从开始建立,经过加速发展,不断走向成熟。研究发现:基于中国房地产市场潜力仍有待释放的前提背景下,外部冲击事件虽然给中国房地产市场带来一定波动和分化,但并未改变长期发展趋势,而且还会加速中国房地产市场的发展;宽松的货币政策环境在应对外部冲击上发挥着关键性作用,也成为房地产市场持续繁荣的重要支撑因素。未来房地产市场应该在维持稳健性政策调控的过程中深化制度改革,同时房地产市场应该回归居住属性,更要防止过度金融化。

摘要： 自1998年房改以来,房地产经历过多轮密集政策调整周期,销售、投资等景气度也与政策的“松”与“紧”密切联动,形成较有特色的房地产周期。2021年上半年,在防风险和调结构的宏观背景下,融资、需求、土地政策全面收紧,房地产投资、销售、拿地等数据有所回落,市场上不乏对房地产“硬着陆”的担忧。由此,供需两端政策又有所放宽,仅2022年以来各地出台地产宽松政策就已超200次。

摘要： 基于城投债交易数据构建了地方政府债务风险指标,从房地产周期和人口流动视角对地方政府债务风险的影响因素进行了研究。结果显示,房地产周期与地方政府债务风险之间存在着“逆周期”关系,促进人口流入有助于降低地方政府债务风险。进一步的异质性分析发现,具有较好工业基础的城市能够更加充分地利用流动人口带来的外溢效应,而对“土地财政”具有更强依赖度的城市受房地产周期的影响更明显。认为要防范化解地方政府债务风险,须适时动态监测房地产周期走向;增加城市对流动人口的吸引力和留城意愿;解决好吸引人才和发展本地经济的问题;要处理好土地财政依赖与地方政府债的关系。

摘要： 文章采用混频动态因子模型提取新型房地产业景气指数,并以该指数作为代表房地产市场景气的内生变量,根据房地产周期转折点判别结果选取代表性时点,基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的时点脉冲响应函数分析我国货币政策对房地产市场调控的周期非对称效应。研究发现,货币政策对房地产行业在增长和波动两个层面均存在周期阶段的非对称效应,一方面,行业主体的预期使货币政策对房地产行业增长存在顺周期的非对称影响;另一方面,房地产行业波动上自我运行的惯性使货币政策对房地产行业的波动也存在非对称影响。

摘要： 房地产周期是指房地产市场出现周期性循环和规律性波动的经济现象。客观描述重庆市房地产市场供需变化及价格周期波动,对于深入挖掘全市房地产市场周期性波动规律并进行逆周期调节、促进房地产市场健康发展至关重要。

摘要： 每次经济危机的影响都长久且深远,十次经济危机有九次是由房地产所致,可以说房地产是经济周期之母。房地产如此令 人着迷,又如此备受争议;它是财富的象征,同时也关系着民生福祉。从房地产市场风险的国际经验研究得出结论:房地产周期的成 因主要为人口、土地、金融三个因素。该研究对于房价的调控政策和长效机制的规划具有一定的启示。

摘要： 房地产市场客观存在自身的波动规律和运行机制.受行业内生因素和外在环境变化、宏观政策的多重影响,房地产市场呈现出明显的周期波动现象.研究不同运行阶段下,房地产企业采用的人力资源管理举措,将有助于进一步了解房地产行业人力资源管理运行规律.这对推动企业高质量发展,建立长效机制具有十分重要的意义.

摘要： 近几年来,南沙逐渐变成了"网红"板块,从中指院新房均价数据来看,南沙新房均价涨幅高达27%,对比广州市其他区涨幅差距明显。南沙一次次用全新的纪录证明了自身所蕴含的潜力,再次突破众人的想象。首席经济学家任泽平在《房地产周期》一书中曾提到"房地产研究三大逻辑":房地产周期长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。其中人口增速又与经济活力有着密切的相关性,人口流向直接揭示了财富方向。从这几年的区域热度可以看出,亿万人口正加速流入大湾区,而大湾区中最具人口吸引力的广深便成为了"热中之热"!广深两城发展趋势交汇处的板块将成为最大的获益者,占尽区域发展红利和人口红利!

摘要： 一场秋雨一场寒,这场秋意的寒,地产企业感受得分外真切。任泽平曾经做出过分析,对于房地产周期,短期看金融,中期看土地,长期看人口,但他没有明说的一句话是:长中短期,都要看政策。在“房住不炒”的主基调下,通过制定房地产商融资的三道红线,以及限售、限购、限离、限法拍、加大保障性租赁房供给等精准调控下,购房者“房价永远涨”的心态被插,越来越多的开发商开始承压,重压!

摘要： 近几年来,房地产业在国民经济发展中逐渐成为举足轻重的一部分,在经济快速发展中起着带头作用。房地产业的发展与宏观经济发展息息相关,本文对比国内外的研究,从房地产周期、房价、房地产的投资三个方面分析房地产波动对一国的宏观经济的影响,从而得出相关结论。

摘要： 自20世纪80年代起,房地产业开始在各国经济发展中起到支柱作用,其发展受到市场和政策的双重作用.诸多因素通过影响市场和政策进而影响房地产市场的发展,使其具有周期性.土地是房地产行业发展的基础.中国实行城市土地全民所有制,这势必导致中国城市房地产行业的发展受国家政策影响程度强于市场调节作用的现象.本文即探究调控政策的出台对房地产市场周期的影响效果.本文首先利用扩散指数法(DI),采用北京市1991年以来诸多与房地产发展相关因素的环比增长率,构建北京市20世纪90年代以来房地产市场的周期模型(大周期);其次,通过将上文大周期模型与1991～2010年国家颁布各项房地产政策目的与时间对比,初步判断国家政策对房地产周期的影响;再次,利用北京市2003～2010年出让的居住用地资料,以年为单位,将其波动趋势(小周期)与大周期模型进行相关性分析;最后,以季度为单位,通过对2003～2011年9年间国家和北京市出台房地产调控政策与居住用地出让价格波动趋势的相关性分析,得到房地产调控政策对房地产周期的影响效果.

摘要： This paper analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the housing market cycle in China through theoretical and empirical analysis. The housing market cycle and the regional differences are investigated both on the national level and using data from four typical cities from China. It is found that house prices are determined by the current and lagged macroeconomic variables such as GDP. Significant regional differences in house prices are also identified. In the long run，there is a stable equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic factors and house prices. The elasticity of GDP，income and investment to house prices are greater than one. In the short run，the error correction mechanism can correct the deviation of house prices from the long run equilibrium level through a slow and gradual process. Among the four typical cities，Beijing and Shanghai have greater fluctuations in their house prices than Guangzhou and Chongqing.

摘要： This paper analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the housing market cycle in China through theoretical and empirical analysis. The housing market cycle and the regional differences are investigated both on the national level and using data from four typical cities from China. It is found that house prices are determined by the current and lagged macroeconomic variables such as GDP. Significant regional differences in house prices are also identified. In the long run，there is a stable equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic factors and house prices. The elasticity of GDP，income and investment to house prices are greater than one. In the short run，the error correction mechanism can correct the deviation of house prices from the long run equilibrium level through a slow and gradual process. Among the four typical cities，Beijing and Shanghai have greater fluctuations in their house prices than Guangzhou and Chongqing.

摘要： This paper analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the housing market cycle in China through theoretical and empirical analysis. The housing market cycle and the regional differences are investigated both on the national level and using data from four typical cities from China. It is found that house prices are determined by the current and lagged macroeconomic variables such as GDP. Significant regional differences in house prices are also identified. In the long run，there is a stable equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic factors and house prices. The elasticity of GDP，income and investment to house prices are greater than one. In the short run，the error correction mechanism can correct the deviation of house prices from the long run equilibrium level through a slow and gradual process. Among the four typical cities，Beijing and Shanghai have greater fluctuations in their house prices than Guangzhou and Chongqing.

摘要： This paper analyzes the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the housing market cycle in China through theoretical and empirical analysis. The housing market cycle and the regional differences are investigated both on the national level and using data from four typical cities from China. It is found that house prices are determined by the current and lagged macroeconomic variables such as GDP. Significant regional differences in house prices are also identified. In the long run，there is a stable equilibrium relationship between macroeconomic factors and house prices. The elasticity of GDP，income and investment to house prices are greater than one. In the short run，the error correction mechanism can correct the deviation of house prices from the long run equilibrium level through a slow and gradual process. Among the four typical cities，Beijing and Shanghai have greater fluctuations in their house prices than Guangzhou and Chongqing.

摘要： This research establishes a diffusion index system of real estate cycle by using Delphi and empirical analysis methods. Evidences are obtained from China’s real estate market through a case study. Using optimized diffusion index we analyze the phases，fluctuation patterns，and other features of the real estate cycle in China. The conclusions are as follows. (1) from 1986 to 2008 the real estate industry in China has experienced four typical cycles as 1986~1990，1990~1994，1994~1999 and 1999~2008; (2) the real estate cycle in China is consistent with its macroeconomic cycle by demonstrating a significantly smaller amplitude in the third and fourth cycles and a longer wavelength in the fourth cycle. This supports the notion that market-oriented reforms have smoothed cyclical fluctuations. (3) combined with analysis of policy factors and macroeconomic variables，it shows that China’s real estate cycle remains significant features of policy cycle and it can be explained by the Impact-Transmission Mechanism Hypothesis.

摘要： This research establishes a diffusion index system of real estate cycle by using Delphi and empirical analysis methods. Evidences are obtained from China’s real estate market through a case study. Using optimized diffusion index we analyze the phases，fluctuation patterns，and other features of the real estate cycle in China. The conclusions are as follows. (1) from 1986 to 2008 the real estate industry in China has experienced four typical cycles as 1986~1990，1990~1994，1994~1999 and 1999~2008; (2) the real estate cycle in China is consistent with its macroeconomic cycle by demonstrating a significantly smaller amplitude in the third and fourth cycles and a longer wavelength in the fourth cycle. This supports the notion that market-oriented reforms have smoothed cyclical fluctuations. (3) combined with analysis of policy factors and macroeconomic variables，it shows that China’s real estate cycle remains significant features of policy cycle and it can be explained by the Impact-Transmission Mechanism Hypothesis.

摘要： This research establishes a diffusion index system of real estate cycle by using Delphi and empirical analysis methods. Evidences are obtained from China’s real estate market through a case study. Using optimized diffusion index we analyze the phases，fluctuation patterns，and other features of the real estate cycle in China. The conclusions are as follows. (1) from 1986 to 2008 the real estate industry in China has experienced four typical cycles as 1986~1990，1990~1994，1994~1999 and 1999~2008; (2) the real estate cycle in China is consistent with its macroeconomic cycle by demonstrating a significantly smaller amplitude in the third and fourth cycles and a longer wavelength in the fourth cycle. This supports the notion that market-oriented reforms have smoothed cyclical fluctuations. (3) combined with analysis of policy factors and macroeconomic variables，it shows that China’s real estate cycle remains significant features of policy cycle and it can be explained by the Impact-Transmission Mechanism Hypothesis.

摘要： This research establishes a diffusion index system of real estate cycle by using Delphi and empirical analysis methods. Evidences are obtained from China’s real estate market through a case study. Using optimized diffusion index we analyze the phases，fluctuation patterns，and other features of the real estate cycle in China. The conclusions are as follows. (1) from 1986 to 2008 the real estate industry in China has experienced four typical cycles as 1986~1990，1990~1994，1994~1999 and 1999~2008; (2) the real estate cycle in China is consistent with its macroeconomic cycle by demonstrating a significantly smaller amplitude in the third and fourth cycles and a longer wavelength in the fourth cycle. This supports the notion that market-oriented reforms have smoothed cyclical fluctuations. (3) combined with analysis of policy factors and macroeconomic variables，it shows that China’s real estate cycle remains significant features of policy cycle and it can be explained by the Impact-Transmission Mechanism Hypothesis.

摘要： 本发明实施例公开了一种基于房地产行业的大数据处理方法及系统，方法包括：通过网络爬虫获取原始数据；对原始数据进行数据清洗及筛选处理，以得到关键词数据库及房地产公众舆情数据库；根据关键词数据库及房地产公众舆情数据库建立训练模型；通过网络爬虫获取待处理数据；将待处理数据输入所述训练模型以得到处理结果。实施本发明实施例，实现了对数据的精细化处理，为后续基于该数据进行房地产行业预期的准确性提供了保证。

摘要： 本发明一实施例涉及防止虚假房源的网上房地产信息提供系统，在房地产网页或房地产应用程序等网上媒体提供没有虚假房源的准确房地产信息。本发明一实施例涉及利用基于大数据的等级分类和行情预测的房地产放心交易服务提供系统，该系统按照不同等级对于房地产交易的各个主体进行分类管理，并且提供行情预测结果，同时使虚假房源的可能性归零，十分安全。

摘要： 本发明涉及一种房地产评估方法和房地产评估系统，所述房地产评估方法包括：将估价区域划分为若干标杆板块；在各个标杆板块内分别建立多个板块标杆点，板块标杆对应的价格即为价格标杆(基价与影响源值)，各个板块价格标杆之间相互影响与牵制，构成价格标杆网络。待估价房地产根据所在的标杆板块，寻找对应的价格标杆，结合影响房地产价格的影响因素值修正，获得对所述待估价房地产的价格。上述房地产评估方法获得的评估价格更准确，依据更充分。

摘要： 本发明提供了财产视频放盘系统，其包括与互联网连接的服务器，其被配置以：提供网站，其用于从用家接收多个视频档案，以将其与某财产放盘列项关联地上载；将全部所接收的视频档案上载至视频寄存服务，同时为每个上载的视频档案提供识别数据；以及显示该财产放盘列项并提供缩图相片，其带有连至各个所上载的视频档案的链接，由此网站的访客可于该财产放盘列项中观看该些视频档案。替代地/额外地，服务器亦可：以多个不同的特征名称之其中一项识别每个缩图相片；追踪访客对每个视频档案的访问；以及产生访客对每个财产放盘列项的相对兴趣程度的报告，其中该兴趣程度是访客对与每个财产放盘列项关联的该些视频档案的访问程度的函数。

摘要： 本发明涉及一种房地分离和分层价值体系的房地产价值确定方法及系统，方法包括，接收查询房地产的地址信息，地址信息包括小区信息和门牌号信息；根据小区信息，获取查询房地产的当前小区房地产重置建安成本；基于空间及神经网络算法模型，根据小区信息，确定查询房地产所在小区的小区地价；对当前小区房地产重置建安成本和小区地价进行整合运算，确定查询房地产所在小区的当前小区房地产价值；基于预先建立的小区‑幢‑户的分层价值体系和门牌号信息，由当前小区房地产价值，确定查询房地产的价值。通过采用房地分离和小区‑幢‑户分层价值体系的方式，使得房地产价值评估更加准确。

摘要： 本发明涉及产生基于REIT的纯地产收益指数。首先，以预定频率从多个REIT中的每一REIT汇编REIT收益数据。接着，将所述所产生的REIT收益数据去杠杆化且根据对于多个目标特性中的每一者的暴露对其进行处理以获得反映指数中每一REIT的权数的系数。最后，根据所述REIT、所述所获得的系数及所述权数产生指数。

摘要： 本发明涉及墙面渗水检测技术领域，具体是涉及一种房地产建筑用墙面渗水检测装置及方法，一种房地产建筑用墙面渗水检测装置，包括机架，还包括检测箱，检测箱滑动安装在机架上，检测箱包括固定组件、注水管和第一喷头，固定组件包括密封腔、接气管和第一连接管，密封腔固定安装在检测箱上，接气管固定设置在检测箱上，第一连接管的两端分别与密封腔和接气管固定连接用以连通密封腔和接气管，注水管固定安装在检测箱顶端，第一喷头固定安装在检测箱内壁，第一喷头与注水管连通，当检测箱紧贴墙面并通过固定组件进行固定后，检测箱与墙面之间具有密封性。本申请解决了渗水检测装置只能模拟雨水天气下墙面的渗水情况，检测结果不精确的缺陷。

摘要： 本发明公开了房建检测技术领域的房地产评估用墙体垂直度检测器，包括，移动底座；导向单元，所述矩形框外表面活动套设有回形支架，所述回形支架上分别贯穿设有传动螺杆和导向杆；检测单元，所述检测单元呈横向于矩形框内腔穿设；本发明通过通过高压注气泵向弯形导管内持续注入高压气流，使得探出支杆带动检测轴前端与墙体表面接触，使得阻气塞杆持续不断的沿着突出管进入弯形导管内阻断高速气流的流通，使得伸缩导管不断接收到快速、间隔短且持续的高速气流，后续工作人员通过观察和测量遮光球的移动轨迹路线图即可得出墙体的垂直度数据，同时还能通过检测轴的撞击对墙体的空鼓缺陷进行同步检测，操作简单，检测精度高。

摘要： 本实用新型公开了一种房地产施工警示装置，包括底板，所述底板的下表面四角均安装有脚轮，所述底板的上表面中间处活动安装有升降套管，所述升降套管的内壁活动连接有升降杆，所述升降杆的上端部固定安装有施工警示牌；所述施工警示牌的上端面固定设置有太阳能电池板，所述太阳能电池板边侧的施工警示牌上端面安装有声光报警器，所述太阳能电池板的下表面设置有逆变器，所述施工警示牌的下端面两侧分别固定有定位杆；所述定位套管边侧的底板上表面固定安装有限位杆。该房地产施工警示装置提升了警示效果，有利于充分保障路过人员的安全，同时装置方便根据使用环境调节施工警示牌的高度，增加了装置的使用灵活性。

摘要： 本实用新型属于房地产技术领域，涉及一种房地产用可沏茶推车，其中，包括支撑板，所述支撑板顶部固定连接有箱体，所述箱体一侧固定连接有固定板，所述固定板内滑动连接有支撑架，所述支撑架顶部固定连接有操作台，所述操作台顶部固定连接有第一卡槽，所述箱体一侧固定连接有固定块，所述固定块内开设有第二卡槽。其有益效果是，该房地产用可沏茶推车，通过设置第一卡槽，能够对水杯进行限位固定，不需要顾客一直拿着纸杯，保障顾客的舒适性，通过设置第二卡槽，能够对暖水壶外壳进行限位固定，能够保障热水壶外壳的稳定性，通过设置暖水壶外壳、暖水壶盖和暖水壶把，能够对热水进行储存，方便后续对热水的使用。