The present invention accurately predicts an important factor which is a cause of filter membrane fouling. According to the present invntion, a prediction device is an importance factor calculation device which calculates a substance that is a cause of the filter membrane fouling, the prediction device comprising: a training unit which trains a predictor that predicts, from an NMR spectrum, an integrated intensity by using training data that takes, as an explanation variable, the intensity in each chemical shift in an NMR spectrum of organic matter attached to the filter membrane and, as an object variable, the integration intensity that is a total sum of the intensities of the NMR spectrums; and an output unit which outputs, on the basis of the trained result of the predictor, information indicating a causative substance that contributes to the prediction of the integrated intensity.
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