Method medium-term forecasting catastrophic earthquakes

摘要

FIELD: forecasting disastrous seismic movements capable of causing many victims and heavy losses.;SUBSTANCE: according to one of alternatives, proposed method includes recording of seismic vibrations and use of real-time digital records of seismic vibrations. Real-time digital records are converted into diagnostic parameter R₂ characterizing degree of chaos in system during given time moment. This diagnostic parameter is found from ratio of vibration overload amplitude, vibration speeds, or other quantities in low-frequency regions of amplitude-frequency spectrums to values of same quantities in high-frequency regions of amplitude-frequency spectrums. Disastrous-earthquake seismic impact warning signal is produced in response to diagnostic parameters exceeding maximum permissible values. According to other alternative, quantity defined as ratio of spectral densities of vibrations in low-frequency regions of amplitude-frequency spectrums to values of same quantities in high-frequency regions of amplitude-frequency spectrum is used as diagnostic parameter.;EFFECT: enhanced reliability of detecting medium-range forerunners of earthquakes.;2 cl, 4 dwg