METHOD OF FORECASTING HIGH-MAGNITUDE CRUST EARTHQUAKES

摘要

FIELD: physics.;SUBSTANCE: spaceship position in earth orbit space is sounded by sending and receiving signal reflected from spaceship. Received signal time delay is used to define pseudo distance to spaceship. Doppler shift and spaceship speed are calculated from variation in received signal spectrum. Spaceship orbital motion characteristics are calculated from obtained data. Calculated spaceship altitude and speed are recorded. Ballistic deceleration factor of spaceship, C_bal, is calculated for definite time intervals and C_bal variation averaged estimates. Said estimates are compared to reveal trends and to typify C_bal variations. C_bal variation trends are filtered. Time intervals with abnormal deceleration with respect to normal variation are revealed. Abnormal variations in spaceship deceleration caused by switching on of engines are excluded. Power spectrum of typified C_bal estimates for definite time intervals is estimated. Obtained estimates are filtered to reveal abnormal spectrum disturbances for analysed intervals. Averaged C_bal variations are refined. Said results are recorded. Abnormal variations in spaceship deceleration are used to forecast time intervals that feature increased probability of high-magnitude crust earthquakes. Climatic maps of analysed characteristics distribution are refined. Forecast based on comparison with climatic map is refined and new data is used to display forecast in graphic or text form.;EFFECT: higher validity of forecast.;3 dwg