Being the communication traffic estimate device which estimates the peak

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To make it possible to predict traffic volume directly caused by new innovation communication service in a communication network.;SOLUTION: A communication traffic prediction device comprises: service subscriber number prediction means for calculating a service subscriber number prediction curve by performing regression analysis processing using a structural change point corresponding to a qualitative change of service subscriber layer in a popularization process of a new communication service; subscriber behavior prediction means for predicting service utilization behavior of a subscriber at a future time point by using history information of the service utilization behavior of a new communication service subscriber obtained from time-sequence data storage means; and stream prediction means for obtaining data necessary for a stream fluctuation prediction from the time-series data storage means and for predicting the occupancy of a utilization frequency between exclusive classes of stream at the future time point by observing a utilization frequency change between the exclusive classes of the stream on the basis of improved quality and increased functions of the new communication service.;COPYRIGHT: (C)2012,JPO&INPIT