METHOD OF PREDICTING GEOEFFECTIVE SOLAR FLARES

摘要

FIELD: physics.;SUBSTANCE: data that vary under the effect of the sun in a period preceding the flare are analysed. The variable data are data of H components of the geomagnetic field with resolution of 1 minute from at least three middle-latitude geomagnetic observatories, spaced apart on the latitude by at least a thousand kilometres. Further, harmonics with frequencies corresponding to 30-60 minute periods are selected from the obtained data in a time series. A wavelet spectrum of H components of the geomagnetic field (vibration power versus time curve) during the day at local time is constructed for each of the three analysed geomagnetic observatories. A global wavelet spectrum of H components of the geomagnetic field is constructed for the same time intervals by averaging wavelet coefficients over time. Vibration power of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field with 30-60 minute periods is estimated (the maximum of the global wavelet spectrum is found). The vibration power value for the current day is compared with a weak flare value at each geomagnetic observatory. If the vibration power of the horizontal component of the geomagnetic field with 30-60 minute periods simultaneously at all three analysed geomagnetic observatories is more than four times greater than the weak flare value of vibration power, then a flare event will probably occur within the next three days.;EFFECT: high reliability and reduced costs on short-term prediction of powerful solar flares.;4 dwg