PREDICTING ARRIVAL TIMES OF VEHICLES BASED UPON OBSERVED SCHEDULE ADHERENCE

摘要

A method and system for determining real-time delay information in a transportation system. Historical operational information about the transportation system, including data related to a plurality of arrival events corresponding to one or more stops within the transportation system is received and a dependency graph is built based upon the historic information. The dependency graph defines relationships that exist in the transportation system between the plurality of arrival events, each of the relationships defining a specific dependent relationship between at least two of the arrival events. Delay dependency values are fitted into the dependency graph, each of the delay dependency values being associated with one of the plurality of relationships and defining a specific dependency value associated with that relationship. Predictive delay information is determined based upon the fitted dependency graph for one or more of the arrival events based upon current operating information.