SYSTEM AND METHOD FOR INITIAL PROFIT PREDICTION MODEL FOR OVERSEAS CONSTRUCTION PROJECT

摘要

A system for predicting an initial profit of an international project in accordance with embodiments of the present invention comprises: a project database for storing risk evaluation information and profit rate information which specify an influence on project profitability of predetermined risk elements for each of projects carried out in the past; a variable extraction unit for extracting binomial risk evaluation independent variables which are reclassified into one of a positive influence element or a negative influence element from the risk evaluation information and binomial profitability dependent variables which are reclassified into one of a malignant property and non-malignant property from the profit rate information; and a nave Bayesian classifier model processing unit which specifies pre-conditional probability parameters in a learning step or a verification step, in accordance with a nave Bayesian classifier model based on the binomial risk evaluation dependent variables and the binomial profitability dependent variables provided for learning from the variable extraction units, and classifies the binomial profitability dependent variables into one of a malignant property or a non-malignant property in an actual prediction step based on the nave Bayesian classifier model having pre-conditional probability parameters specified in the learning step and binomial risk evaluation dependent variables of a new project that are inputted from the outside.