Fluctuation estimation method, fluctuation estimation apparatus and fluctuation estimation program for total output of natural energy type distributed power supply group

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To estimate a level of variation in total output from a number of natural-energy distributed power sources from a little data in accordance with a simple method.SOLUTION: Weather data and/or power generation output data are measured within an estimation object area (S1), an index for a level of variation in power generation output from natural-energy distributed power sources and an index for a level of variation in average output are computed (S2), and an average correlation during the variation of the power generation output is calculated by using the index for the level of variation in the power generation output and the index for the level of variation in the average output (S3). An index for smoothing effects of variation in power generation output more than the number of measuring spots is estimated (S4), and the level of the variation in the average output of distributed power sources more than the number of measuring spots is estimated by using the estimated index for the smoothing effects (S5). A total of facility capacities of distributed power sources more than the number of measuring spots is multiplied by the level of variation in the average output, thereby estimating the level of variation in the total output of distributed power sources more than the number of measuring spots (S6).