A method to forecast a price of a commodity may include obtaining a particular time in the future for a price forecast of the commodity and obtaining previous price information of the commodity. The method may also include decomposing the price information into spike price information and non-spike price information and determining a non-spike price at the particular time using the non-spike price information. The method may also include determining whether a price spike occurs at the particular time based on the price information. The method may also include providing a forecasted price of the commodity at the particular time. The forecasted price of the commodity may be the non-spike price in when the price spike does not occur and being a spike price when the price spike does occur. The spike price determined based on the spike price information using a third machine learning price algorithm.
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