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Forecasting leading industry stock prices based on a hybrid time-series forecast model

机译:基于混合时间序列预测模型预测行业领先股票价格

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摘要

Many different time-series methods have been widely used in forecast stock prices for earning a profit. However, there are still some problems in the previous time series models. To overcome the problems, this paper proposes a hybrid time-series model based on a feature selection method for forecasting the leading industry stock prices. In the proposed model, stepwise regression is first adopted, and multivariate adaptive regression splines and kernel ridge regression are then used to select the key features. Second, this study constructs the forecasting model by a genetic algorithm to optimize the parameters of support vector regression. To evaluate the forecasting performance of the proposed models, this study collects five leading enterprise datasets in different industries from 2003 to 2012. The collected stock prices are employed to verify the proposed model under accuracy. The results show that proposed model is better accuracy than the other listed models, and provide persuasive investment guidance to investors.
机译:在预测股票价格中已广泛使用许多不同的时间序列方法来赚钱。但是,以前的时间序列模型仍然存在一些问题。为了克服这些问题,本文提出了一种基于特征选择方法的混合时间序列模型,用于预测主导行业股票价格。在提出的模型中,首先采用逐步回归,然后使用多元自适应回归样条和核岭回归来选择关键特征。其次,本研究通过遗传算法构建了预测模型,以优化支持向量回归的参数。为了评估所提出模型的预测性能,本研究收集了2003年至2012年不同行业的五个领先企业数据集。所收集的股票价格用于验证所提出模型的准确性。结果表明,提出的模型比其他列出的模型具有更好的准确性,并为投资者提供有说服力的投资指导。

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