Electricity Price Influence Factors Analysis Using Stochastic Matrix for Real-Time Electricity Price Forecasting

摘要

Real-time electricity price (RTEP) influence factor extraction is essential to forecasting accurate power system electricity prices.At present,new electricity price forecasting models have been studied to improve predictive accuracy,ignoring the extraction and analysis of RTEP influence factors.In this study,a correlation analysis method is proposed based on stochastic matrix theory.Firstly,an augmented matrix is formulated,including RTEP influence factor data and RTEP state data.Secondly,data correlation analysis results are obtained given the statistical characteristics of source data based on stochastic matrix theory.Mean spectral radius(MSR) is used as the measure of correlativity.Finally,the proposed method is evaluated in New England electricity markets and compared with the BP neural network forecasting method.Experimental results show that the extracted index system comprehensively generalizes RTEP influence factors,which play a significant role in improving RTEP forecasting accuracy.