Generating A Risk-Adjusted Probabilistic Forecast Of Renewable Power Production For A Fleet With The Aid Of A Digital Computer

摘要

Probabilistic forecasts of the expected power production of renewable power sources, such as solar and wind, are generally provided with a degree of uncertainty. The expected power production for a fleet can be projected as a time series of power production estimates over a time period ahead of the current time. The uncertainty of each power production estimate can be combined with the costs and risks associated with power generation forecasting errors, and displayed or visually graphed as a single, deterministic result to assist power grid operators (or planners) in deciding whether to rely on the renewable power source.