LONG-TIME SCALE PHOTOVOLTAIC OUTPUT TIME SEQUENCE MODELLING METHOD AND APPARATUS

摘要

A long-time scale photovoltaic output time sequence modelling method and apparatus. The method comprises: collecting historical data of a photovoltaic power station, and selecting a photovoltaic output with a time length of one year and a time resolution of 15 mins (101); acquiring weather types of various days corresponding to the photovoltaic output from a weather station (102); respectively calculating a transition probability between various weathers (103); generating a simulated time sequence of the photovoltaic output within a pre-set time scale (104); and verifying the validity thereof (105). In the method, a simulated time sequence with the year and month satisfying a random fluctuation law of a photovoltaic time sequence can be acquired according to different requirements, and favourable conditions and data support can be provided for time sequence production analogue simulation containing large-scale new energy resources.