Method and device for modeling a long-time-scale photovoltaic output time sequence

摘要

A method and device for modeling a long-time-scale photovoltaic output time sequence are provided. The method includes that: historical data of a photovoltaic power station is acquired, and a photovoltaic output with a time length of one year and a time resolution of 15 mins is selected (101); weather types of days corresponding to the photovoltaic output are acquired from a weather station (102), and probabilities of transfer between each type of weather are calculated respectively (103); and a simulated time sequence of the photovoltaic output within a preset time scale is generated (104), and its validity is verified (105). By the method, annual and monthly photovoltaic output simulated time sequences consistent with a random fluctuation rule of a photovoltaic time sequence may be acquired according to different requirements to provide a favorable condition and a data support for analog simulation of time sequence production including massive new energy.