DECISION METHOD AND SYSTEM FOR INVESTMENT TIME OF HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT BY CLIMATE CHANG SCENNARIO

摘要

The present invention relates to a method and a system for determining an investment time of a hydroelectric power plant in accordance with a climate change scenario. The method for determining an investment time of a hydroelectric power plant in accordance with a climate change scenario comprises: (a) a step of acquiring outflow data for each climate scenario of a hydroelectric power generation business selection region predicted in advance to be disclosed; (b) a step of calculating a current value by time of a hydroelectric power plant from the outflow data; (c) a step of calculating variability of a hydroelectric power plant value from the outflow data; (d) a step of calculating a call option value by investment time based on the current value of the hydroelectric power plant and the variability; and (e) a step of determining an optimal investment time of the hydroelectric power plant from the call option value by time. The present invention provides an investment strategy of a hydroelectric power generation business in accordance with a climate change scenario, and uses a real option model and climate change scenario data to provide efficient methods and systems capable of determining an investment time to maximize economic efficiency of the hydroelectric power generation business.