EARTHQUAKE MOVEMENT PREDICTION DEVICE AND EARTHQUAKE MOVEMENT PREDICTION METHOD

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an earthquake movement prediction device and an earthquake movement prediction method capable of accurately predicting earthquake movement even when a hypocenter is deep underground.;SOLUTION: On the occurrence of an earthquake, an earthquake information acquisition section 14 acquires a magnitude and a position of a hypocenter thereof. A prediction section 24 predicts strength of the earthquake movement at a prediction object position on the basis of a regression formula using a regression coefficient preliminarily calculated from past earthquake data with the acquired magnitude of the earthquake and a radiation angle, defined by: a distance of a first route from the prediction object position to the position of the hypocenter; the distance of a second route from the prediction object position to the ground of a first region in the ground of a second region having larger attenuation of a seismic wave than the first region; and the distance of a third route from an edge point of the second route to the hypocenter in the ground of the first region, as explanatory variables and intensity of earthquake movement as a response variable.;SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1;COPYRIGHT: (C)2018,JPO&INPIT