Parameter estimation device, device failure predicting device, optimum policy searching device, method and program

摘要

To enable estimation of a parameter relating to a failure of a device in consideration of an influence on a speed of deterioration of an external environment.SOLUTION: Based on failure time data 22, external environmental data 24, and maintenance data 26, a parameter estimating unit 34 calculates an estimation parameter including a parameter used in an aged deterioration function with a virtual age of a device being an argument and a degradation rate for each of discretized external environmental values. At this time, the virtual age of the device is expressed by using the deterioration rate for each of the discretized external environmental values, the external environmental data, and the maintenance data. When a failure rate of the device is obtained by multiplying the value of the aged deterioration function by a time corresponding to the virtual age of the device, the estimation parameter is estimated so as to maximize a posterior probability of the estimation parameter including a likelihood function of the estimation parameter expressed by using the time of failure and the failure rate of the device.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1