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Bidirectional Relationship between Investor Sentiment and Excess Returns: New Evidence from the Wavelet Perspective

机译:投资者情绪与超额收益的双向关系:小波视角下的新证据

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摘要

We propose to use the wavelet concept of the phase angle to determine the lead-lag relationship between investor sentiment and excess returns that are related to the bubble component of stock prices. The wavelet phase angle allows for decoupling short- and long-run relations and is additionally capable of identifying time-varying comovement patterns. Based on the monthly S&P500 index and two alternative monthly US sentiment indicators we find that in the short run (until 3 months) sentiment is leading returns whereas for periods above 3 months the opposite can be observed. Moreover, the initially strong positive relationship becomes less pronounced with increasing time horizon, thereby indicating that the over- or undervaluation in the short run is gradually corrected in the long run.
机译:我们建议使用相位角的小波概念来确定投资者情绪和与股票价格泡沫成分相关的超额收益之间的超前-滞后关系。小波相位角允许将短期和长期关系解耦,并且还能够识别随时间变化的共同运动模式。根据每月的S&P500指数和两个备选的每月美国情绪指数,我们发现,短期内(直到3个月),情绪是领先的回报,而在3个月以上的时期内,则相反。此外,随着时间跨度的增加,最初的强正关系变得不那么明显,从而表明从长期来看,短期内的高估或低估会逐渐得到纠正。

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