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Spatial Dependence in House Prices: Evidence from China's Interurban Housing Market

机译:房价的空间依赖性:来自中国城市住房市场的证据

摘要

"Spatial thinking" is increasingly popular in housing market studies and spatial dependence across properties has been widely investigated in the intra-city housing market. The contribution of this paper is to study the spatial dependence and spillover effect of house prices from an interurban perspective, referring to the spatial interaction across local housing markets. The extensive literature study concludes that following behavior, migration and equity transfer and spatial arbitrage of capital are the main behavioral reasons for interurban spatial interaction. Using a cross-sectional data set in eastern China, our empirical results from both parametric and nonparametric approaches provide strong evidence of spatial interaction in the interurban housing market. The parametric results suggest that the spatial lag model (SAR) is the best model specification to describe the interurban house price process, indicating an endogenous interaction pattern. Ignoring such interaction effect in the house price model will produce biased coefficients estimators and misleading interpretation. In SAR model, Spillover effects of explanatory variables caused by spatial interaction are calculated by partial derivative interpretation approach and are demonstrated to have the magnitude as much as half of their direct effects. Moreover, the comparison between different spatial weighted matrices reveals that the spatial interaction depends not only on distances, but also on the economic situation of each jurisdiction. Meanwhile, nonparametric approach draws a flexible relationship between spatial dependence and geographical distances. Using spline correlogram, we find monotonically declined spatial autocorrelation of house prices and explanatory variables within larger distances, whereas the significant spatial autocorrelation of OLS residuals can only be observed at short distance (60 Km). The spillover effect, being obtained from spatial covariance decomposition, is highly significant and declines within the radius of 250 Km. All the nonparametric results imply that though the house price determinants can satisfyingly account for the interurban house prices, the importance of spillover effect cannot be neglected within certain distances. That is the neighbor's housing market situation is quite useful in predicting the house price of a particular city. This study provides a good insight into explaining why the house prices in some cities always run above the level indicated by fundamentals, and highlights the importance of cooperation between local governments in making the housing policy.
机译:在住房市场研究中,“空间思维”越来越流行,城市间住房市场已广泛研究了跨属性的空间依赖性。本文的贡献是从城市间的角度研究房价的空间依赖性和溢出效应,指的是各地住房市场之间的空间相互作用。广泛的文献研究得出结论,跟随行为,迁移和股权转移以及资本的空间套利是城市间空间互动的主要行为原因。使用中国东部地区的横截面数据集,我们从参数和非参数方法得出的经验结果为城际住房市场中的空间相互作用提供了有力的证据。参数结果表明,空间滞后模型(SAR)是描述城市间房价过程的最佳模型规范,表明存在内源性交互作用模式。忽略房价模型中的这种相互作用效应将产生有偏差的系数估计量和误导性的解释。在SAR模型中,由空间相互作用引起的解释变量的溢出效应是通过偏导数解释方法计算的,并被证明具有直接效应的一半。此外,不同空间加权矩阵之间的比较表明,空间相互作用不仅取决于距离,还取决于每个辖区的经济状况。同时,非参数方法在空间依赖性和地理距离之间建立了灵活的关系。使用样条曲线相关图,我们发现房价和较长距离内的解释变量单调下降的空间自相关,而OLS残差的显着空间自相关只能在短距离(60 Km)上观察到。通过空间协方差分解获得的溢出效应非常显着,并且在250 Km的半径内下降。所有非参数结果都表明,尽管房价决定因素可以令人满意地解释城市间的房价,但在一定距离内不能忽略溢出效应的重要性。那就是邻居的住房市场状况对于预测特定城市的房价非常有用。这项研究为解释为什么某些城市的房价始终高于基本面所指示的水平提供了很好的见解,并强调了地方政府之间在制定住房政策方面进行合作的重要性。

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