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The effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate: The case of Denmark

机译:财政政策对固定汇率的小型开放经济体的影响:丹麦的情况

摘要

We study the empirical effects of fiscal policy in Denmark since the adoption of a fixed exchange rate policy in 1982. We demonstrate that fiscal stimulus has a rather large impact on economic activity in the very short run, with a government spending multiplier of 1.3 on impact in our preferred specification. Denmark's fixed exchange rate implies that the nominal interest rate remains fixed after a fiscal expansion, facilitating a substantial impact of the fiscal stimulus on the real economy. On the other hand, the large degree of openness of the Danish economy means that a sizeable share of the fiscal stimulus will be directed towards imported goods. Our results suggest that the 'monetary accomodation channel' dominates the 'leakage effect'. We also find that the effects of fiscal stimulus are very short-lived in Denmark, with the effect on output becoming insignificant after around a year. The fiscal multiplier is above 1 only in the first quarter, and drops to 0.6 one year after the shock. We further demonstrate that the fiscal multiplier is far from constant over time. While the multiplier was below 1 in the 1970's and 1980's, it has been above 1 in the 1990's and the 2000's, when Denmark has had a credibly fixed exchange rate and sound public finances.
机译:自1982年采用固定汇率政策以来,我们研究了丹麦财政政策的经验效果。我们证明,财政刺激政策在短期内对经济活动的影响很大,政府支出乘以1.3在我们的首选规格中。丹麦的固定汇率意味着在财政扩张后名义利率保持固定,这有利于财政刺激措施对实体经济的重大影响。另一方面,丹麦经济的高度开放意味着大量的财政刺激措施将用于进口商品。我们的结果表明,“货币住宿渠道”主导着“渗漏效应”。我们还发现,在丹麦,财政刺激措施的效果是短暂的,大约一年后,对产出的影响变得微不足道。财政乘数仅在第一季度才超过1,而在震荡发生后的一年内降至0.6。我们进一步证明,财政乘数远没有随着时间的推移而保持不变。虽然乘数在1970年代和1980年代低于1,但在1990年代和2000年代却一直高于1,当时丹麦的汇率固定在合理范围内,公共财政状况良好。

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