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The speed of leaving the old job: a study on job changes and exit into unemployment during the East German transition process

机译:离开旧工作的速度:在东德过渡进程中研究工作变化和退出失业问题

摘要

The first period of the transition to a market economy was characterised by a high rate of job-change in many transition countries. This was no different for East Germany. This paper analyses the consequences of the transition process for East German workers in their old job. We quantify the speed at which they change their jobs for a new one or enter unemployment by studying a sample of job spells drawn form the German Socio-Economic Panel-East. The study focuses the period from July 1990 to December 1993, thus a period after the introduction of the German Economic, Monetary, and Social Union. We estimate the effects of important covariates on the transition rates from the old job into a new and into unemployment by a standard competing-risks duration model. Our results suggest that the speed of exit into new jobs rises with skills. We also find that old firms managed to keep workers with relatively good job matches. The special short-time allowances, a labour market program that was in force until the end of 1991, slowed down the exit rate into unemployment prior to its end. We find that workers increased their rate of job-change temporarily at around the period in which this program ended.
机译:向市场经济过渡的第一阶段的特点是许多转型国家的工作变动率很高。对于东德来说也是如此。本文分析了过渡过程对东德工人旧工作的后果。我们通过研究德国东部社会经济专家小组的工作计划样本,量化了他们换一份新工作或失业的速度。该研究的重点是1990年7月至1993年12月,即引入德国经济,货币和社会联盟之后的时期。通过标准竞争风险持续时间模型,我们估计了重要协变量对从旧工作到新工作和失业的过渡率的影响。我们的结果表明,离职的速度随技能的提高而增加。我们还发现,老公司设法使工人拥有相对不错的工作机会。特殊的短期津贴是一项一直持续到1991年底的劳动力市场计划,在计划结束之前减缓了失业率。我们发现,在该计划结束期间,工人暂时增加了工作变动率。

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