Building a theoretical framework to understand the role of aid in achieving the education Millennium Development Goals in fragile states

摘要

This thesis aims to build a theory for understanding the role of aid in achievingudthe education Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in fragile states. In souddoing, it responds to claims that both educational research (see e.g. Cohen etudal., 2000), and the economic literature on aid and international developmentud(see e.g. Deaton, 2008), are insufficiently grounded in theory.ududIn finding a methodological voice for this thesis, I distinguish between threeudresearch paradigms: positivist, interpretive and critical theory. I ask whetherudtheory is essentially a positivist project, better suited to quantitative methodsudand to the natural sciences. I argue for a 'mixed-method' approach, proposingudthat when qualitative methods generate data that are subjected to a strongerudprocess of generalisation – including comparison between data derived fromudqualitative and quantitative methods, and from macro and micro level analysis –udthen that evidence may be sufficiently strong to underpin theory.ududI use a four step process to build theory: (i) categorising data into domains forudanalysis, (ii) hypothesising linkages between these domains, (iii) investigatingudthese hypotheses through assessing the evidence supporting them, (iv)udorganising hypotheses into a theoretical framework. To assess the strength ofudevidence in support of each hypothesis, I use an instrument to ‘grade theudevidence’, based on a threefold assessment of method, observer bias andudcorroboration. I include evidence from new research conducted for this thesis,udincluding: a portfolio analysis of 145 DFID education projects in fragile statesud(1991-2007), and an analysis of primary data collected for the 2008 DFIDud‘Education Portfolio Review’.ududThe findings of this research confirm a potential relationship between aid inputsudand education outcomes in fragile states. Positing that this relationship mightudwork through intermediate financing and institutional effects, it finds weakudevidence for the former, but stronger evidence for the latter. With both aid andudnon-aid inputs (e.g. diplomacy, military engagement), external inputs appearudbetter at supporting existing incipient reform than generating that reform,udsuggesting that donors should adopt a more modest and opportunistic approachudto aid, as opposed to deploying a ‘transformational’ blueprint (Easterly, 2009).ududThe inter-dependence between aid inputs and non-aid inputs points to theudimportance of deploying instruments within a single approach to strategy and possibly delivery. There is relatively strong evidence for ‘pre-conditions’ forudsuccessful interventions – proposed here as political will, community ownershipudand security / stability – whereas evidence for conventional proxies of ‘aidudeffectiveness’ is weak relative to the importance generally ascribed to it.ududThe evidence linking education and social stability is mixed, and weaklyudresearched in developing country contexts – potentially significant for criticaludtheorists who question the wisdom and motives of donor governments investingudin education to counter radicalisation.ududI conclude by assessing whether the theory generated has validity or utility. Iudassess the theory against five key characteristics of theory: empirical grounding;udexplanatory power; predictive power; utility; verification / falsification. I concludeudthat my theory has explanatory power and utility, but that claims toudgeneralisability are weak, given the importance of context.ududThe thesis and its product (the ‘theory’) provide a framework that advances ourudunderstanding of the relationships between aid and education outcomes inudfragile states. It tests the evidence base for these proposed relationships and,udnotwithstanding limits of generalisability, offers a narrative and framework withudpractical utility for future research, policy development and programming.