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The outstanding 2004/05 drought in the Iberian Peninsula: associated atmospheric circulation

机译:伊比利亚半岛2004/05年度特大干旱:相关的大气环流

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摘要

The 2004/05 hydrological year (October 2004 to September 2005) was characterized by intense dry conditions affecting most of western Europe (35 degrees-55 degrees N and 10 degrees W-10 degrees E). In Iberia the drought affected every month of this period, with the southern half of Iberia receiving roughly 40% of the usual precipitation by June 2005. Moreover, this episode stands as the driest event in the last 140 yr, producing major socioeconomic impacts particularly due to the large decrease in hydroelectricity and agricultural production in both Iberian countries (Portugal and Spain). To assess the atmospheric submonthly circulation associated with this drought an Eulerian [weather types (WTs)] and a Lagrangean (objective storm tracks) analysis were combined. There was a dramatic drop in "wet" WT frequency during winter, with less than 50% of the normal value, and a corresponding increase of "dry" WTs. The storm-track analysis reveals an impressive northward displacement of cyclone trajectories in the North Atlantic sector in winter months, resulting in an almost complete absence of cyclones crossing Iberia and western Europe. At the monthly scale, the intense drought in Iberia was due to a combination of different physical mechanisms. First, the scarce precipitation observed between November 2004 and January 2005 was associated with positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indexes for these months. In February, the East Atlantic (EA) pattern seems to be the main driver. In March neither the negative NAO (-1.8) nor the positive EA (1.1) are capable of explaining the large negative precipitation anomalies. However, it is shown that during March 2005, an intense and anomalous blocking was displaced southward of its usual location, inhibiting the occurrence of precipitation over Iberia and leading to a negative NAO index anomalously associated with low precipitation records.
机译:2004/05年的水文学年(2004年10月至2005年9月)的特点是强烈的干旱条件影响了西欧的大部分地区(北纬35度至55度和西经10度至东经10度)。在伊比利亚,该时期的每个月都会受到干旱的影响,到2005年6月,伊比利亚的南半部约占通常降水量的40%。此外,这一事件是过去140年来最干旱的事件,产生了重大的社会经济影响,特别是由于伊比利亚两个国家(葡萄牙和西班牙)的水力发电和农业生产大幅下降。为了评估与此干旱相关的大气次月环流,结合了欧拉(天气类型(WTs))和拉格朗日(客观风暴轨迹)分析。冬季,“湿” WT频率急剧下降,不到正常值的50%,“干” WT相应增加。风暴轨迹分析显示,冬季冬季,北大西洋地区的气旋轨迹向北移动令人印象深刻,从而导致几乎完全没有越过伊比利亚和西欧的气旋。在每月尺度上,伊比利亚的严重干旱是由于多种物理机制的综合作用。首先,在2004年11月至2005年1月之间观察到的稀少降水与这几个月以来北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数呈正相关。 2月,东大西洋(EA)模式似乎是主要驱动力。在3月,NAO负值(-1.8)或EA值(1.1)均不能解释较大的负降水异常。但是,事实表明,在2005年3月,强烈而异常的阻塞被移动到其通常位置的南部,抑制了伊比利亚地区降水的发生,并导致了与低降水记录有关的负NAO指数异常。

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