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An Adjoint-Based Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filter

机译:基于伴随的自适应集合卡尔曼滤波器

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摘要

A new hybrid ensemble Kalman filter/four-dimensional variational data assimilation (EnKF/4D-VAR) approach is introduced to mitigate background covariance limitations in the EnKF. The work is based on the adaptive EnKF (AEnKF) method, which bears a strong resemblance to the hybrid EnKF/three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) method. In the AEnKF, the representativeness of the EnKF ensemble is regularly enhanced with new members generated after back projection of the EnKF analysis residuals to state space using a 3D-VAR [or optimal interpolation (OI)] scheme with a preselected background covariance matrix. The idea here is to reformulate the transformation of the residuals as a 4D-VAR problem, constraining the new member with model dynamics and the previous observations. This should provide more information for the estimation of the new member and reduce dependence of the AEnKF on the assumed stationary background covariance matrix. This is done by integrating the analysis residuals backward in time with the adjoint model. Numerical experiments are performed with the Lorenz-96 model under different scenarios to test the new approach and to evaluate its performance with respect to the EnKF and the hybrid EnKF/3D-VAR. The new method leads to the least root-mean-square estimation errors as long as the linear assumption guaranteeing the stability of the adjoint model holds. It is also found to be less sensitive to choices of the assimilation system inputs and parameters.
机译:引入了一种新的混合集成卡尔曼滤波器/四维变异数据同化(EnKF / 4D-VAR)方法,以减轻EnKF中的背景协方差限制。这项工作是基于自适应EnKF(AEnKF)方法的,它与EnKF /三维变异数据同化(3D-VAR)混合方法非常相似。在AEnKF中,使用带有预先选择的背景协方差矩阵的3D-VAR [或最佳插值(OI)]方案,将EnKF分析残差反投影到状态空间后,通过生成新成员来定期增强EnKF集合的代表性。这里的想法是将残差的转换重新构造为4D-VAR问题,从而用模型动力学和先前的观察约束新成员。这应该为估计新成员提供更多信息,并减少AEnKF对假定的平稳背景协方差矩阵的依赖性。这是通过将分析残差与陪伴模型及时向后集成来完成的。在不同情况下使用Lorenz-96模型进行了数值实验,以测试该新方法并评估其在EnKF和EnKF / 3D-VAR混合动力方面的性能。只要能保证伴随模型的稳定性的线性假设成立,新方法将导致最小均方根估计误差。还发现它对同化系统输入和参数的选择不太敏感。

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