A posterior modeling approach for on-orbit breakup, named ASSEMBLE (ASemi-Stochastic Environment Modeling of Breakup in LEO), is proposed.The main objectives of this paper are the statistical characterization of the orbital and physical parameters of the fragments generated by a non-orbit breakup. The analysis of two line element (TLE) data of the fragments of some fragmentation events, such as the Indian PSLV-TES rocket body breakup, showed their orbital parameters obey statistical distributions. The apogee or perigee height, limited by breakup altitude, and the inclination follow Laplace distributions, while the eccentricity a Lognormal distribution. Subsequently, suitable empirical relations in the literature help to expand the fragmentation scenario to mass, effective area, and ballistic coefficient. Lastly, the simulation of well-known historical breakups of (i) SPOT I rocket body,(ii) COSMOS 1813, (iii) STEP II rocket body, and (iv) CBERS I/ SAC Iprovide further confidence in the present model for orbital debrisstudies.
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机译：提出了一种在轨解体的后验建模方法ASSEMBLE（LEO的亚半随机环境建模）。本文的主要目的是对非轨道产生的碎片的轨道和物理参数进行统计表征。 -轨道破裂。对某些碎片事件（如印度PSLV-TES火箭弹破裂）碎片的两个线元（TLE）数据的分析表明，它们的轨道参数服从统计分布。顶点高度或近地点高度受破裂高度的限制，并且倾斜度遵循拉普拉斯分布，而偏心率则为对数正态分布。随后，文献中合适的经验关系有助于将破碎情况扩展到质量，有效面积和弹道系数。最后，对（i）SPOT I火箭体，（ii）COSMOS 1813，（iii）STEP II火箭体和（iv）CBERS I / SAC的众所周知的历史破裂进行仿真，进一步证明了本模型对轨道的可靠性杂物研究。
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