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FISCAL DEFICIT AND THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON INFLATION RATES IN MALAYSIA

机译:马来西亚的财政赤字和宏观经济变量对通货膨胀率的影响

摘要

This study aims to examine the increasing government fiscal deficit as a fiscal expansion by increasing spending will increase aggregate demand. Where excessive aggregate demand will cause inflation. High inflation rateswill lead to lower economic growth and to affect the macroeconomic and financial instability (Fisher 1983; Sarel 1996; Khan & Senhaji 2001). Empirical analysis using a ARDL model (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and the method of Bounds co-integration test supports the Keynesian view that fiscal policy is larger than the effect on output policy for the long term monetary of Malaysia during the period 1970 to 2006. Long-term relationship between fiscal deficits in countries such as debt, external debt and government budget deficits and macroeconomic variables on inflation. The variables studied are variable deficit, domestic debt and external debt in GDP, national income, government expenditure, aggregate demand, and prices outside the country. While the national interest, foreign interest and exchange rates as the basis monetary also identified. Elasticity of short and long term is considered to see the effects of changes in a variable on other variables. Finally, some policy implications are provided based on the available studies.
机译:这项研究旨在研究政府财政赤字的增加,因为通过增加支出的财政扩张将增加总需求。总需求过多会导致通货膨胀。高通货膨胀率将导致较低的经济增长并影响宏观经济和金融不稳定(Fisher 1983; Sarel 1996; Khan&Senhaji 2001)。使用ARDL模型(自回归分布式滞后)和Bounds协整检验方法进行的经验分析支持凯恩斯主义的观点,即在1970年至2006年期间,财政政策大于对马来西亚长期货币对产出政策的影响。债务,外债和政府预算赤字等国家财政赤字与通货膨胀的宏观经济变量之间的长期关系。研究的变量包括赤字,GDP中的国内债务和外债,国民收入,政府支出,总需求和国外价格。同时以国家利益,外国利益和汇率为基础也确定了货币。考虑短期和长期弹性,以查看变量变化对其他变量的影响。最后,根据现有研究提供了一些政策含义。

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