Covariance Properties of Annual Net Basin Supplies to the Great Lakes

摘要

This paper examines the covariance properties of Great Lakes annual net basin supplies when these supplies are estimated as the residual term in a lake water balance. Two questions related to interannual persistence are addressed. First, can the residual method itself introduce a covariance structure which is capable of mimicking long-term persistence in the annual net basin supplies. Second, why is the (possibly induced) covariance most pronounced for annual net basin supplies to the lower Great Lakes. Finally, there is a brief discussion on other possible causes of observed long-term persistence in the annual net basin supplies and the potential implications that genuine versus artificial persistence pose to operational studies of Great Lakes water levels.