Predicting DUI Recidivism. Volume 1. Blood Alcohol Concentration and DriverRecord Factors

摘要

This study examined the relationship between BAC at arrest, driving history, andother demographic factors, and the 1-year post-arrest probability of recidivism for DUI convictees. BAC-only prediction models, complex prediction models involving many factors found on the driver record, and simple prediction models, containing two or three factors were developed. All models found a third degree or cubic relationship between BAC and recidivism, and showed recidivism to be high at a BAC of 0.00%, decreasing down to a BAC of about 0.09%, increasing to a BAC of about 0.29%, and then decreasing again to be a BAC of 0.35%+. High rates of recidivism at high BACs suggest alcohol dependency, while at low BACs other impairing substances are likely to be involved. The mean rate of DUI recidivism for offenders who refused to be tested for alcohol was the same as the mean rate for BAC-tested offenders who had prior DUIs at the time of the arrest.