Comparing Alternative Models for Using Decennial Census Data in SAIPE State Poverty Estimates

摘要

The Census Bureau's Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) Program produces poverty estimates for various age groups for states, counties, and school districts. The state and county estimates are produced from various models applied to direct poverty estimates obtained from the March Supplement to the Current Population Survey (CPS). These models use predictor variables constructed from administrative data sources, demographic population estimates, and poverty estimates from the previous decennial census. The administrative data sources used include IRS tax file data, food stamp program participation data, and supplemental security income data from the Social Security Administration. The school district estimates are produced from simple synthetic updates to the previous census estimates with results controlled to the current county model-based estimates. This paper focuses on use of decennial census poverty data in the state poverty models.