Potential Influenza Pandemic: Possible Macroeconomic Effects and Policy Issues

摘要

There is widespread concern among policymakers and public health experts about the possibility of a worldwide epidemic of avian influenza. Such pandemics are not new: there were three in the 20th century, of which one, the 1918-1919 Spanish flu outbreak, is estimated to have killed over 500,000 people in the U.S. and up to 50 million worldwide. Public health concerns arise because of the challenge of creating the public health infrastructure in the United States and other countries that would be adequate to meet the challenges of a severe pandemic. This paper focuses on the potential for, and possible economic effects of, a pandemic of avian flu-although many of the policy issues that avian flu raises apply also to pandemics of other types of influenza. The paper provides background on the effects of a potential avian flu pandemic, gives very rough estimates of the economic effects of two possible scenarios, and discusses policy options related to the preparedness of the United States for such an outbreak.