Alaska Road Weather Project: Technical Performance Assessment Report Fairbanks Field Demonstration 2013-2014.

摘要

The Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities began implementation of a Maintenance Decision Support System in an effort to improve snow and ice control in the Fairbanks area. As part of the project the reliability of the weather forecast models were evaluated by comparing the forecast with the actual weather records. In general, the models were fairly accurate, but some bias was detected in the air and pavement temperatures and the dew point. All analysis used a 95% confidence level. The predicted air temperatures tended to be about -3o F between November 1, 2013 and March 30, 2014. The pavement temperature had a bias depending on the time of day and increasing as the forecast time lengthened. In the near term there was a slight warm bias. Beyond 12 hours there was a consistent cold bias of about 3oF. The dew point predicted temperature had a small bias of about 1oF.