Rice Outlook, December 2008

摘要

The 2008/09 U.S. all-rice season-average farm price (SAFP) was raised 65 cents per hundredweight (cwt) on both ends to $15.15-$16.15 per cwt, the highest on record. A slower-than-expected decline in global trading prices since August and higher-than-expected U.S. monthly rough-rice cash prices - especially for medium/short-grain rice - were largely responsible for the upward revision. The main revision to the U.S. 2008/09 rough-rice balance sheet was a 3.0-million cwt reduction in the all-rice import forecast to 22.5 million cwt, still the second highest on record. The reduction was partially based on deliveries through September. Import forecasts were lowered for both long- and medium/short-grain. On the use side, total exports were lowered 1.0 million cwt to 106.0 million, based primarily on a slower-than-expected shipment pace, especially to the Middle East. Milled exports account for all of the reduction. The rough-rice export forecast was increased slightly due to stronger-than-expected sales to South America. By class, long-grain accounted for all of the reduction in the U.S. 2008/09 export forecast. On balance, these revisions resulted in an 8-percent reduction in the U.S. ending stocks forecast to 23.4 million cwt, the lowest in a decade. The stocks-to-use ratio of 10.1 percent is the lowest since 1974/75. Ending stocks for medium/short-grain rice are projected to be the lowest since at least 1982/83. Global rice production for 2008/09 is projected at a record 434.6 million tons (on a milled basis), with several major exporters and importers expected to harvest record crops. Global ending stocks are projected at 80.8 million tons, the second consecutive year of a buildup. Global rice trade for calendar year 2009 remains projected at 29.5 million tons (milled basis), up 1 percent from this year, but nearly 8 percent below the 2007 record. Import forecasts for 2009 were raised for Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela; but lowered for the United States. Iran's and Iraq's 2008 import forecasts were also raised this month. Thailand's trading prices are down $20-$32 per ton from early November, primarily due to the release of several million tons of government-held rice stocks, weak demand by international buyers, and the start of a bumper main season harvest. In contrast, Vietnam's prices are up about $50 per ton from a month ago due to recent sales and expectations of an upcoming large purchase by the Philippines. U.S. prices for long-grain milled rice continue to fall due to declining global prices, larger U.S. supplies, and a lack of new sales.