Rice Outlook, May 2009, Special Report: Factors Behind the Rise in Global Rice Prices in 2008

摘要

Global rice prices rose to record highs in the spring of 2008, with trading prices tripling from November 2007 to late April 2008. The price increase was not due to crop failure or a particularly tight global rice supply situation. Instead, trade restrictions by major suppliers, panic buying by several large importers, a weak dollar, and record oil prices were the immediate cause of the rise in rice prices. The 2007-08 rice price increase followed price spikes for major agricultural commodities such as wheat, corn, and soybeans. The primary cause of the rise in prices for these commodities from 2006-08 was rising global incomes, dietary changes, increased use of biofuels, tight grain supplies, and increased participation in futures markets by nontraditional investors. Because rice is critical to the diet of about half the world's population, the rapid increase in global rice prices in late 2007 and early 2008 had a detrimental impact on those rice consumers well-being. Although rice prices have dropped more than 40 percent from their April 2008 highs, they remain well above pre-2007 levels.