Mesoscopic Evacuation Modeling for Small to Medium-Sized Metropolitan Areas

摘要

Modeling and developing different evacuation scenarios gained significant interest in recent years, where the management of the transportation system in support of evacuation efforts proved to be critical in mitigating the impacts of regional emergency events. However, most of the evacuation modeling efforts focused on large urban areas due to the recurrence of the regional emergency event, resources availability, and data availability. For urban areas that are classified as small- and medium-size metropolitan areas, confusion still exists at the metropolitan planning organization (MPO) level on how to develop effective and practical evacuation plans. This study aims to develop a methodology for supporting effective decision making and testing emergency scenarios while taking into account various factors and their effect on public safety. The focus of this study is on developing an evacuation model for urban areas utilizing the resources available to MPOs and obtaining local evacuation data, which include human behavior data from a local household survey. A case study is developed using Fargo-Moorhead Council of Governments travel demand model integrated with DYNASMART-P software. The modeling approach provides direct connectivity with the regional model, and the hybrid model incorporates a traffic generation component into the regional model along with dynamic supply.