Approach to the Assessment of Safeguards System Effectiveness

摘要

The subject of this report is the development of techniques for the quantitative evaluation of nuclear materials safeguards systems. Probabilistic methods have been applied to quantifications of security. The quantitative assessment of safeguards system effectiveness has required development of measures of effectiveness, detailed descriptions of adversary action sequences, generation of data about protective mechanisms, development of analysis techniques, and threat definition. Quantifications were accomplished with the aid of event trees and fault trees to identify the adversary action sequences and protective mechanisms. The quantification capability implements a potential for developing security design criteria and performance criteria, provides a relative measure of sensitivity for the operational or cost effectiveness compromises that are inevitable in the design or evaluation of any security system, and could be utilized as a training aid for security forces, and, with development, could aid an operating system in identifying attack.