An Examination of Probability of Precipitation Forecasts in Light of Rainfall Areal Coverage.

摘要

Twelve-hour composites of weather radar echoes are used to derive estimates of rainfall coverage in forecast zones of southern Alabama and northwest Florida. Coverage estimates are then compared with probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts to assess the skill and reliability shown by the forecasts. In addition,it is shown that areal coverage and PoP forecasts are closely related and a knowledge of the former,in real time,could lead to improved forecasts.