Continuous Longitudinal Manpower Survey. The Impact of CETA on Participant Earnings: Entrants During the First Half of 1975. Working Paper No. 1

摘要

The report uses data from the Continuous Longitudinal Manpower Survey (CLMS) and other sources to develop initial estimates of postprogram net earnings impacts of programs under the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA). The paper, which focuses primarily on methodology, reports on development of comparison groups from the Current Population Survey, and the use of Social Security annual earnings records for the CETA cohort and the comparison groups, to estimate net impact of the major types of CETA programs on participants earnings. It examines different approaches to constructing the comparison groups and the extent to which analytical outcomes are dependent on the variables used and the priority they are given in matching the comparison and program groups. In light of the various technical limitations, the study cautions strongly that these first estimates of impact are highly tentative and not definitive, pending testing of further efforts to measure and adjust for comparison group bias and other uncertainties about the data.