A Comparison of the Mesa-Puget Sound Oil Spill Model with Wind and Current Observations from August 1978

摘要

This report compares the winds and currents observed in August, 1978 in the Strait of Juan de Fuca with simulated wind and current fields taken from the MESA-Puget Sound oil spill model. This model is described in a companion report, Pease (1980). A method is developed for relating these errors in velocity to uncertainties in predicted position. The tidal current subprogram of the oil spill model is shown to reduce the uncertainty in trajectory position by an amount that is somewhere in the range of 50% to 90% of the total uncertainty that can be caused by ignorance of the tides. It is also shown that the uncertainty in trajectory position is strongly affected by our inability to predict the baroclinic motions in the region. Over small times, less than 10 hours, the dispersion is mainly tidal, and the tidal current subprogram contributes importantly to the prediction of position.