Housing Demand Models and Housing Market Models for Regional and Local Planning

摘要

The authority mainly responsible for housing provision in Sweden is the local government. Every year each municipality has to work out a program for the development of the housing stock during the next five years. These plans are then used by the national government to decide on an upper limit for the future volume of housing investment in different regions. The major purpose of this study is to offer methods that can be used in housing planning at the local and regional level. A disaggregated approach is used. Housing is regarded as an indivisible commodity characterized by several attributes and different household categories are distinguished. A model package is presented which consists of a household formation model, a housing demand model and a model for depicting the competition in the housing market. An exogenous population forecast at the regional level is the basis for the model package. The number of dwellings demanded is obtained by the household formation model and the demand model spells out what dwelling types various households demand. In the housing market model this demand is confronted with an exogenously given supply. The output is a pattern of housing consumption and a set of variables indicating imbalances in the market.