Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts.

摘要

Recognizing the opportunity to enhance the service it provides to the nation, the National Weather Service (NWS) commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to form a committee to provide recommendations on how NWS can more effectively estimate and communicate uncertainty in weather and climate forecasts. This opportunity was highlighted in Recommendation 8 of the report Fair Weather: Effective Partnerships in Weather and Climate Forecasts (NRC, 2003a) and NWS desired more specific input in this area. The committee was tasked with providing guidance on understanding and characterizing user needs for uncertainty information, suggesting improvements in current methods used to estimate and validate uncertainty products and recommending improvements in methods used to communicate uncertainty information. Since weather services in the United States are the result of an interdependent enterprise consisting of public, private, and academic assets, NWS also asked the committee to make recommendations consistent with an enterprise viewpoint.