Short-Term Nitrogen Dioxide Modeling: Currently Available Models and the Applications and Development Needed for Energy Assessment

摘要

The rapid increase in US coal consumption projected for the near future is likely to result in, among other things, increased concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and other nitrogenous pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. The design and siting of new coal utilization facilities could be constrained by the potential promulgation of a short-term ambient air quality standard for nitrogen dioxide and by other regulations. To assess the extent and pattern of such constraints, appropriate air quality models for short-term nitrogen dioxide levels are needed. As an initial step in developing models capable of emissions from coalburning electric utility and industrial point sources, this report: (1) discusses multiple interdependent factors that affect local short-term concentrations of nitrogen dioxide such as meteorology, air quality, and the characteristics and distribution of emission sources of nitrogen dioxide precursors; (2) evaluates the utility and limitations of existing air quality models for nitrogen dioxide, including empirical, mechanistic and empirico-mechanistic models; and (3) suggests an approach for applying and developing relatively simple models for predicting short-term concentrations of nitrogen dioxide in assessments of regional and national energy development. (ERA citation 06:020818)