The Retrospective Iterated Analysis Scheme for Nonlinear Chaotic Dynamics

摘要

Atmospheric data assimilation is the name scientists give to the techniques of blending atmospheric observations with atmospheric model results to obtain an accurate idea of what the atmosphere looks like at any given time. Because two pieces of information are used, observations and model results, the outcomes of data assimilation procedure should be better than what one would get by using one of these two pieces of information alone. There is a number of different mathematical techniques that fall under the data assimilation jargon. In theory most these techniques accomplish about the same thing. In practice, however, slight differences in the approaches amount to faster algorithms in some cases, more economical algorithms in other cases, and even give better overall results in yet some other cases because of practical uncertainties not accounted for by theory. Therefore, the key is to find the most adequate data assimilation procedure for the problem in hand. In our Data Assimilation group we have been doing extensive research to try and find just such data assimilation procedure. One promising possibility is what we call retrospective iterated analysis (RIA) scheme. This procedure has recently been implemented and studied in the context of a very large data assimilation system built to help predict and study weather and climate. Although the results from that study suggest that the RIA scheme produces quite reasonable results, a complete evaluation of the scheme is very difficult due to the complexity of that problem. The present work steps back a little bit and studies the behavior of the RIA scheme in the context of a small problem. The problem is small enough to allow full assessment of the quality of the RIA scheme, but it still has some of the complexity found in nature, namely, its chaotic-type behavior. We find that the RIA performs very well for this small but still complex problem which is a result that seconds the results of our early studies.