Calculations of reliability predictions for the Apollo spacecraft

摘要

A new method of reliability prediction for complex systems is defined. Calculation of both upper and lower bounds are involved, and a procedure for combining the two to yield an approximately true prediction value is presented. Both mission success and crew safety predictions can be calculated, and success probabilities can be obtained for individual mission phases or subsystems. Primary consideration is given to evaluating cases involving zero or one failure per subsystem, and the results of these evaluations are then used for analyzing multiple failure cases. Extensive development is provided for the overall mission success and crew safety equations for both the upper and lower bounds.